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Preliminary Discussion Points Concerning New transit Network Modelling

The transit network modelled in EX 13.3 is not the network that will ultimately be before Executive Committee in June. However, UofT (on behalf of the City) will be using the same model to project the network that Council will be asked to support. In that context, there are a number of results from the model presented as an appendix to EX13.33 that are concerning. Based on my preliminary reading of the materials, the following are a few reasonable discussion points as we move forward:

 

  • Scarborough subway (McCowan with 3 stops and without Smart Track) has an AM peak hour ridership of 13,700 westbound into Kennedy

 

  • Relief Line (Pape via Queen- most likely scenario according to the Chief Planner- without SmartTrack) has an AM peak hour ridership of 12,500

 

  • Staff have provided the reason for this being that there will be significant ridership from buses that would feed into a Scarborough subway, while Relief Line riders would have a larger network, and therefore more options, to rely upon

 

Yet……

 

  • The Scarborough subway in the 3 stop McCowan alignment goes from 13,700 to 12,600 riders in the AM Peak hour with 15 minute SmartTrack, a loss of 1,100 riders

 

  • The Relief Line goes from 12,500 to 11,600 riders in the same scenario, a loss of 900 riders. Despite the larger number of transit options available to downtown users, that supposedly accounts for the lower ridership on the Relief Line, the sensitivity on the line is about the same as for the Scarborough subway.

 

  • The McCowan 4 stop subway, was projected to have 17,400 AM Peak Hour riders without SmartTrack

 

  • In 2012, the TTCs Downtown Rapid Transit Study found that the Southbound am peak hour ridership for the University-Spadina subway is 19,300.

 

  • If we put the peak point at, say, between Museum and Queen's Park before the government workers and students get off and you're probably not picking up a ton more riders at that point....that's accumulated ridership from 9 stops- with all the surface routes that feed into them, plus whatever feeds in from Downsview, and all the riders coming from the Bloor-Danforth line to the busiest employment areas in the whole country
    • The large government complex, several huge hospitals, UofT, the financial district

 

  • How is it remotely possible that four stops in Scarborough would accumulate a similar amount of ridership heading into Kennedy station?


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